I’m the
last person on the planet to judge a manager based on their playing
career. I was a mediocre high school and
college basketball player at best, so I’m glad none of my previous institutions
looked at my career stats before they offered me a head coaching job. I just might have been forced to become a
full-time writer years ago if they did.
Even
three of the great MLB managers of my lifetime, Tony La Russa (career .199 BA),
Tommy Lasorda (career .071 BA), and Sparky Anderson (career .218 BA), were
subpar major league players. However, as
I have watched these young Cubs the past three seasons, I am beginning to
wonder who Theo Epstein handed the keys over to in regards to nurturing his
young core and hopeful rocks of the club for the next 15 years: Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo.
It is
imperative that we take a closer look at the experience the present coaching
staff has, but let’s first take a look at who Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo
have proven themselves to be.
Starlin
Castro was a career .310 minor league hitter before the Cubs made him their starting
shortstop in 2010. Below is his Minor
League line, his 2010-12 Major League line, and then his 2013 year line when
management decided he should hit for more
power and walk more (yes, the italics is foreshadowing):
Years
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
BB
|
SO
|
Minors
|
.310
|
.362
|
.421
|
75
|
121
|
2010
|
.300
|
.347
|
.408
|
29
|
71
|
2011
|
.307
|
.341
|
.432
|
35
|
96
|
2012
|
.283
|
.323
|
.430
|
36
|
100
|
2013
|
.239
|
.278
|
.342
|
25
|
115
|
Anthony
Rizzo was a career .303 minor league hitter before the Cubs brought him up to
man first base in 2012. Below are his
comparisons versus his present campaign:
Years
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
BB
|
SO
|
Minors
|
.303
|
.372
|
.542
|
181
|
389
|
2012
|
.285
|
.342
|
.463
|
27
|
62
|
2013
|
.230
|
.324
|
.421
|
70
|
111
|
Is it
just coincidence that two proven young hitters have simply fallen off the table
this year? You might say that there is
no one hitting around them, and teams have the freedom to not pitch to them. When in fact, the Cubs are ranked 3rd
in the majors in doubles, 8th in home runs, and 7th in
the NL in slugging percentage (ahead of the Pirates and Reds) when their two
supposedly best players are having down years.
If Castro and Rizzo were batting .270+ and the bullpen wasn’t giving
away games like candy at Halloween, what could have this year become?
I am to
the point where I don’t think it is coincidence at all. There is not one proven former hitter sitting
on the Cubs bench this year. In fact, I’d
be willing to bet that the Cubs may have one of the worst groups of former hitters
managing the day-to-day hitting of any team in the majors. Let’s look at the three in charge of hitting:
Dale
Sveum, Manager
Major
League Career: .236 BA over 12 seasons
with a 227 BB / 657 SO ratio
James
Rowson, Hitting Coach
Minor
League Career: .204 BA over 4 seasons
with a 56 BB / 201 SO ratio
He never made the big leagues.
Rob
Deer, Asst. Hitting Coach
Major
League Career: .180 BA over 11 seasons
with a 575 BB / 1409 SO ratio
Oh
yeah, he led the NL in strikeouts in 4 different seasons.
Should these
three truly be teaching great young hitters about the rigors of handling 600 at bats
over a 162 schedule? I am a believer in
the Epstein plan. I can see it
working. Baez, Soler, Almora, Bryant, Vogelbach
and Ott. Put that group with Castro,
Rizzo, Lake and Castillo, and Cubs’ fans could be partying in 2015 like it’s
1984. However, and much to my chagrin, I
cannot imagine this group coming close to reaching their respective or
collective potential with the coaching and teaching staff above. The off-season might be too late to bring in
someone who will let these kids use their natural talent and get back on the
growth trajectory they were on before this year.
I love
the plan, Theo. I just think you gave
the keys to the wrong guys to drive the bus.
Matt Rogers
Twitter: @madcoachdiary
Email: coachrogers12@gmail.com
